Restaurant Hiring Collapses in September as Retail Projected to Hit 16-Year Low

Frontline Jobs Face Early Strain

Hiring in the frontline sectors is showing significant signs of strain.

Aura’s September 2025 Restaurant Jobs Report reveals that restaurant job postings fell 17% month-over-month, a steep drop after a summer peak. This comes just as Challenger, Gray & Christmas forecasts that retailers may hire fewer than 500,000 workers for the 2025 holiday season, which would make it the smallest seasonal surge since 2009.

The takeaway appears clear: companies are pulling back on their frontline hiring, and they are doing it early.

Restaurant Job Postings Fell 17% in September

In August, the restaurant industry posted over 355,000 open jobs, reflecting a 7 percent increase from July. However, in September, the total number of postings dropped to 294,686. That represents a 17 percent decline, erasing all summer gains and pushing the market into contraction.

All top ten states for restaurant hiring posted negative growth. Texas dropped 21 percent, Ohio fell 19 percent. Major chains, such as McDonald’s and Domino’s, cut postings by over 30 percent. Crew Member roles declined by 20 percent, and Customer Service jobs were down 34 percent.

This was not an isolated dip among certain regions or job titles. The demand cut appears broad, fast, and deep.

Retail Seasonal Hiring Projected to Hit Lowest Level Since 2009

While restaurants are already pulling back, retailers are still in the planning phase. But early signals suggest a similar path.

According to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, total retail seasonal hiring is expected to fall below 500,000 jobs in the fourth quarter of 2025. That would mark the lowest level since 2009 and an 8 percent decline from last year.

Companies like Target, Macy’s, Aldi, and 1-800-Flowers have yet to announce hiring numbers. Target plans to rely on its "On-Demand" staff rather than hiring large numbers of new seasonal workers. Kohl’s says it will hire, but has not released any figures.

Only a few companies, like Bath & Body Works and Spirit Halloween, have confirmed hiring plans, and even those numbers are flat or down from last year.

This is not just belt-tightening, but appears to reflect a shift in overall workforce strategy. More companies are extending hours to current staff, reducing holiday inventory, and leaning into automation or flexible scheduling models.

Why Seasonal Hiring Models Are Changing

These patterns may be more than temporary. Employers appear to be modifying their hiring practices and labor planning strategies across frontline sectors. The potential reasons include:

• Labor costs remain elevated from recent years

• Profit margins are under pressure from inflation and tariffs

• Consumer demand is uncertain heading into Q4

• Many companies overhired during the recovery and are now pausing

These trends may explain why hiring volumes are dropping even as the holiday season approaches.

What the Hiring Slowdown Means for Operators and Investors

For restaurants, this slowdown may persist if foot traffic declines or revenue fails to meet expectations. For retailers, the absence of early hiring announcements is already a signal. A weak seasonal hiring wave often points to lower expectations for holiday sales.

The broad economic forecasts may be affecting plans. PwC forecasts that consumers will spend 5 percent less this holiday season compared to 2024. AlixPartners expects retail sales growth to fall to just 3 to 5 percent. 

Companies are no longer hiring ahead of demand. They are waiting for certainty and choosing to do more with fewer workers.

Get Ahead of Workforce Shifts with Aura

Aura’s real-time labor intelligence platform enables clients to view shifts closer to when they occur. From job posting activity to role-specific demand trends, Aura helps operators, consultants, and investors make better, faster decisions about workforce strategy.

Instead of relying on lagging indicators, Aura clients can:

• Benchmark staffing across key markets

• Identify early signs of attrition or overcapacity

• Plan future labor needs based on competitor behavior

The September restaurant data shows the importance of that lead time. While others wait for monthly or quarterly reports, Aura surfaces actionable signals inside the platform or embedded into your AI conversations. 

Stay ahead of frontline labor shifts with Aura’s workforce intelligence platform. See job posting activity, competitor staffing moves, and market demand signals in real time. Request a demo today and discover how Aura enables operators, consultants, and investors to leverage workforce data into a competitive advantage.