Amid Data Blackouts, Labor Market Slowdown Comes Into Focus

A Global Jobs Slowdown, Seen Through Private Data

With official U.S. labor market data delayed due to the ongoing government shutdown, private sector sources are filling the gap. Headlines cite a broader labor market slowdown, marked by sluggish hiring and declining job creation. What’s missing is context: not just what is slowing, but why, and where pockets of resilience may still exist.

Recent commentary from The Wall Street Journal, Moody’s Analytics, and private payroll data points to a continued labor market slowdown. However, Aura’s October Jobs Report and sector-specific intelligence provide a more detailed picture of what’s happening beneath the surface, both in the U.S. and globally.

Explore Aura’s AI-powered workforce dashboards to see where hiring is cooling and where opportunity still exists. 

Global Labor Market Slowdown: Regional Divergence Emerges

Moody’s Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi summed it up directly: “The job market is weak and getting weaker.” Private estimates suggest the U.S. added somewhere between 0 and 60,000 jobs in September. Even those gains were narrowly concentrated in health care, education, and a handful of states.

As The Wall Street Journal reported this week, “a host of alternative jobs data from Wall Street are pointing in the same direction: The U.S. labor market is losing steam,” while the federal shutdown delays the government’s own jobs release.

Aura’s proprietary job workforce analytics confirms this cooling trend, but with a broader and more granular lens.

Global Job Postings: Month-over-Month Change

• U.S. job postings fell 13.8% month-over-month

• North America overall declined 13.3%

• Latin America posted a 16.0% drop

• Asia-Pacific declined 8.3%

In contrast, Europe posted a 2.8% increase, led by France (+6.7%) and the United Kingdom (+5.3%). These results underscore a global labor market slowdown now visible across most regions, even as Europe shows temporary resilience.

Tech Hiring Slowdown as AI Gains Share

Aura’s visualization below highlights the sharp divide between traditional software hiring and AI-related demand.

New September data from Aura’s Tech Hiring Intelligence Report deepens the picture:

• Software engineering job postings dropped 25% month-over-month

• AI roles declined only 8%

• AI’s share of all software roles rose to 12.4%, its highest on record

This divergence is strategic: companies aren’t exiting tech investments but refocusing their budgets on AI, automation, and cloud architecture. You might call this the "AI shift from R&D to ROI."

AI is no longer isolated to core tech firms; September’s biggest AI job growth came from:

• Professional training and coaching: +148%

• Civil engineering: +95%

• Biotech: +61%

• E-learning: +51%

This signals the start of broad, industry-wide adoption, not just expansion within software firms.

Remote Hiring Grows Despite Labor Market Slowdown

While job postings declined broadly, remote roles increased in share, now representing 7.8% of all postings, up from 6.5% in May. Remote work is becoming a core hiring channel for select industries, rather than a temporary pandemic artifact.

• Social services: +171% remote roles

• Travel and tourism: +71%

• Online media and industrials: –29% to –30%

This suggests remote hiring is becoming more specialized and embedded within select sectors, rather than a universal or temporary accommodation.

Strategic Takeaways for Investors Amid the Labor Market Slowdown

While many companies are reducing job postings, they’re not de-prioritizing transformation. Instead, they’re consolidating their focus on fewer, but more strategic roles.

As Zandi noted, small businesses, especially those with fewer than 500 employees, are being disproportionately affected by rising input costs and policy volatility.

Why Real-Time Workforce Intelligence Is Critical Now

The Bureau of Labor Statistics is historically the gold standard. But when that data is unavailable, revised dramatically, or delayed for weeks, firms risk being caught flat-footed. In a real-time economy, lagging indicators don’t suffice.

Aura’s platform provides near-real-time labor data and visibility into workforce dynamics across 20 million companies, over 1 billion profiles, and millions of job postings. For leaders making investment, transformation, or resource allocation decisions, this intelligence is essential.

In the absence of clarity, don’t guess. Get ahead.

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For more nuance about the current job market, watch Evan Sohn, Aura's CEO, live on CNBC: