Why Labor Market Signals Are Failing and What Decision-Makers Should Watch Instead

When Jobs Data Isn't Trusted, What Should Decision-Makers Track Instead?

The July 2025 BLS jobs report landed with relatively little headline drama: +73,000 nonfarm payroll jobs, an unemployment rate holding at 4.2%, and a labor force participation rate that remained low at 62.2%. Healthcare added 55,000 jobs, and social assistance gained 18,000. Federal employment declined for the seventh consecutive month.

But beneath the surface, revisions from prior months told a much more dramatic and sobering story. May and June job gains were revised down by a combined 258,000, and the number of long-term unemployed rose to 1.8 million. Together, these data points signal a market that’s cooling faster than headline figures suggest.

And then came the political fallout.

The dismissal of BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer and accompanying claims of “rigged” data have created a sharp divide in how decision-makers perceive public labor statistics. When the leadership of institutions like the BLS becomes a political flashpoint, it introduces a deeper concern: trust. Even the perception that jobs data could be influenced by political motives can lead investors, employers, and policymakers to question its reliability.

That’s why complementary sources of labor intelligence are becoming more important. Official data remains essential, but when it’s delayed, revised, or potentially politicized, organizations need additional signals, ones that are real-time, segmented, and independently generated. The more fragmented the labor market narrative becomes, the more valuable it is to triangulate insights across multiple sources.

Get a Demo of Aura’s Workforce Intelligence Platform to See Hiring Trends Before They Go Public

Aura Caught the Slowdown Before the Revisions Did

Aura’s August 2025 Workforce Report synthesizes real-time data from over 20 million companies, covering both job postings and organizational movements. While the BLS reported modest job gains in July and revised May and June downward by a combined 258,000, Aura’s platform had already shown early signs of that weakening trend.

For example, job postings in North America declined 5% in July and have been falling across key industries since early Q2. These early indicators help explain the BLS’s concurrent rise in long-term unemployment, and they point to a broader dynamic: the hiring market wasn’t just slow to report, it was slow to move, and Aura captured that in real time, before it showed up in the revisions.

Let’s take a look at what our data reveals this month.

Global Job Postings Are Slowing, But Not Everywhere

While the BLS covers the U.S. labor market, Aura tracks employment activity globally. In July, Aura’s platform recorded significant slowdowns across major hiring regions:

Hiring Shifts by Region

Why It Matters

This cooling in Asia-Pacific and Europe precedes official economic releases and offers a leading indicator for multinationals monitoring exposure in those markets. In North America, the -5% decline in postings signals ongoing caution, aligning with the BLS’s broader narrative of stagnation in most industries.

Which U.S. States Are Quietly Leading in Hiring?

National aggregates obscure variation across U.S. regions. According to Aura’s data, South Dakota, Wyoming, and Connecticut posted the largest relative increases in job postings, while larger markets like California and Texas slowed in relative terms despite high absolute volumes.

This suggests that localized expansions,  whether tied to industry shifts, policy incentives, or employer relocation,  are driving demand in pockets that aren’t always captured in federal data.

These regional shifts are visible in Aura’s state-level job posting map, which highlights both volume and month-over-month change.

Industry Trends: A Market Powered by Intermediaries

One of the most telling insights from July: Staffing and recruiting firms posted over 1.85 million new jobs, more than any other sector. This suggests companies are increasingly relying on third-party providers to manage labor sourcing, especially during periods of volatility.

Where Demand Is Concentrated

Reading Between the Lines

The only major sector showing notable expansion was hospitality, which jumped 46%. This could reflect delayed seasonal hiring or a rebound in consumer-facing activity. Meanwhile, IT, retail, and financial services all contracted slightly, suggesting strategic slowdowns rather than a demand collapse.

This contrast is especially clear in healthcare. While the BLS reported strong growth in employment (+55,000 jobs), Aura recorded a 7% decline in new healthcare job postings during the same period. This could indicate that employers are filling existing vacancies rather than creating new ones, or that healthcare hiring is nearing a short-term saturation point.

For decision-makers tracking momentum, this divergence suggests that headline job growth may lag shifts in actual hiring intent. Aura’s data provides the forward-looking view.

Remote Work Stabilizes With Surprising Growth in New Sectors

From February to June, the share of remote roles steadily declined. But July saw a modest recovery:

• Remote roles rose to 7.4% of all postings, marking the first monthly increase since April and a potential signal of stabilization.

• High-remote industries remain stable: IT services, computer software, and internet

• Unexpected growth in event services (+445%) and medical devices (+21%) indicates new remote operational models

While the BLS doesn’t currently publish monthly data on remote work, Aura’s data provides a continuous view of this increasingly structural shift. Rather than booming, remote work is now settling into a steady-state equilibrium.

Postings Down, New Entrants Up: A Tighter Market Than It Appears

In July, the BLS recorded a sharp increase in new entrants to the labor force (+275,000): people actively looking for their first job. At the same time, Aura tracked a slowdown in job postings across most major industries and regions. That divergence has real consequences: more job seekers competing for fewer newly posted roles.

It’s one possible reason why long-term unemployment rose by 179,000 and why total payroll growth remains muted. Aura’s data supports the view that while people are entering the workforce, employers are pulling back on new hiring. This disconnect is critical for analysts and operators alike, offering a preview of near-term labor market friction before it shows up in lagging data.

Country-Level Divergence: High Openness, Low Momentum

Globally, the United States accounted for the bulk of job postings, but the Netherlands (73%) and China (90%) had the highest share of “open” (still active) roles, suggesting longer hiring cycles or slower demand absorption.

• Japan saw a 48% decline in job postings month-over-month

• France dropped 28%

• UK saw a modest increase (+2%)

These differences in hiring pace and duration offer insight into corporate confidence and structural labor friction across economies.

Why Smart Companies Are Rethinking Their Talent Signals

The current labor market narrative is fragmented.

The BLS reports small but steady gains in payroll employment. Aura sees slower momentum globally, uneven hiring across U.S. states, and continued sectoral consolidation in how companies approach hiring. Neither source is flawed. But together, they form a more complete picture.

What the BLS cannot capture in near-real-time shifts in job posting velocity, demand by function, or remote readiness, Aura's AI-powered platform quantifies continuously. For investors, operators, and consultants, the question isn’t whether to trust public data. It’s whether it’s enough on its own.

Why Complementing Labor Data Is a Competitive Edge

In this moment, the question is not about replacing official labor statistics. It’s about enriching them.

Aura’s platform was designed not to supplant the BLS but to complement it, providing speed, granularity, and global perspective when static snapshots fall short. The revisions to May and June underscore how quickly macro narratives can change. And in that window between measurement and publication, opportunities can be won—or missed. The BLS revisions told us what just happened. Aura is already showing what’s coming next.

Don’t wait for the next jobs report. See Aura’s hiring signals in real time: schedule a demo today.