December Hiring Trends: Workforce Insights You Need

Stay Ahead: December's Workforce Trends at a Glance

The labor market reflects shifting economic and societal dynamics, with notable variations across countries, U.S. states, and industries. Aura’s workforce analytics platform provides clear, near real-time, forward-looking insights into hiring trends through its analysis of job postings, helping businesses and leaders make sense of these changes.

New: Watch Evan Sohn, Aura CEO, on CNBC discussing December hiring trends

We’ve integrated key findings from the latest JOLTS data from the BLS and ADP’s National Employment Report to enhance this analysis, offering a well-rounded view of the December 2024 hiring landscape. Note that our December report uses data updated through the end of November. All data is sourced from publicly listed sources and is for general and informational purposes only.

This hiring trend report December analyzes the state of the current workforce. It starts with five key overall job trends and then drills into global, regional, and industry-specific workforce insights. This workforce data offers actionable takeaways to help decision-makers stay ahead in a rapidly evolving labor market.

1. U.S. Job Market Trends: Key Declines and Regional Growth

Aura data shows that job postings in the U.S. fell by 13.92% in November, with states like California (-14.86%) and Texas (-17.42%) leading the declines.
However, North Dakota, as identified by Aura, posted a +8.57% increase, perhaps reflecting resilience in sectors like agriculture and energy—an insight corroborated from growth in natural resources and mining (+2,000 jobs) during the month.
JOLTS data reinforces this decline in hiring momentum. Total job openings held steady at 7.7 million but were down 941,000 year-over-year, signaling a cooling labor market across industries.

2. Big Businesses Thrive While Small Firms Face Hiring Challenges

According to ADP, large employers (500+ employees) added 120,000 jobs in November, making up the majority of private-sector growth.
Aura data aligns with this, showing significant hiring in larger states like California and Texas, even amid overall declines. However, small businesses—particularly those with 20–49 employees—lost 29,000 jobs in November, per ADP, highlighting the challenges faced by smaller firms.
This trend is mirrored in JOLTS, which shows hiring rates steady for larger firms but declining in smaller establishments, reflecting broader economic pressures.

3. Top Industries in Hiring: Winners and Losers for December

Aura data pinpoints clear industry winners: Consumer Electronics (+17%), Food and Beverages (+3%), and Motion Pictures (+18%), reflecting demand driven by seasonal and market-specific factors.
On the other hand, Retail (-22%) and Tech (-21%) were the hardest hit, which aligns with JOLTS data, showing increased layoffs in retail (+60,000) and a slowdown in durable goods manufacturing.
ADP adds further detail, showing robust hiring in Education and Health Services (+50,000) and Trade/Transportation (+28,000), which correlates with Aura’s insights about growth in food distribution and logistics roles.

4. Pay Trends: Wage Growth in a Cooling Job Market

ADP highlights strong wage growth, with job-stayers seeing +4.8% pay increases and job-changers up +7.2% year-over-year. This signals continued talent competition, even amid slower hiring.
Aura’s data on remote work supports this, as stable demand for flexible work models (accounting for 6.17% of job postings in November) suggests employers are offering remote opportunities as part of competitive compensation packages.
The JOLTS quits rate (2.1%) also correlates with ADP’s findings, as workers confident in finding better opportunities are driving wage increases, particularly in industries like accommodation and food services (+90,000 quits in JOLTS).

5. Remote Work Trends: Stability Amid Shifting Job Dynamics

Aura data shows that remote jobs declined slightly in absolute numbers (658,827 postings in November vs. 771,200 in October), but their share of total postings remained stable at 6.17%.
This seems to align with ADP’s pay data, which shows competitive compensation for remote-eligible roles in sectors like Information (+4.5%) and Professional and Business Services (+4.7%).
Combined with JOLTS, which shows steady job openings in tech and professional services, the data suggests that remote roles are increasingly concentrated in higher-paying, in-demand fields.

Global Job Trends Indicate Slower Hiring

world job postings

November job postings saw notable contractions across many major economies:

United States: With 3.34 million postings in our data set, the U.S. saw a -13.92% decline compared to the previous period.
Germany: Declined by -17.00% to 973,007 job postings, reflecting challenges in hiring across industries.
France: Recorded 1.07 million job postings, down by -11.79%.
India: Posted 428,081 job openings, a -12.57% decline.

Bright spots included:

Italy, where job postings grew slightly by +0.81%, bucking the global trend of contractions.

The global future hiring slowdown is apparent, with declines cutting across geographies. Though very small, Italy’s growth in job postings stands out and warrants further observation of industry-specific drivers in that market.

U.S. Hiring Trends: A State-by-State Analysis

November saw a broad decline in job postings across the U.S., with some states seeing larger dips than others:

Notable Outliers:

North Dakota: Increased its postings by +8.57%, standing out as the only state with positive growth.
Idaho: Experienced the steepest decline, at -20.43%, followed by West Virginia at -18.56%.

Mid-Sized Performers:

Massachusetts: Posted 89,359 jobs, a -10.69% reduction.
Georgia: Saw job postings fall to 84,314, down by -15.33%.

The declines are widespread, and growth in North Dakota presents an anomaly worth exploring further in industries such as agriculture and energy.

Industry Trends Show Declining Hiring Demand

industry job postings

Top Hiring Industries:

Staffing and Recruiting: Led with 802,182 job postings, down by -9%.
Hospital and Healthcare: Maintained high activity with 328,397 postings, showing a -8% decrease.
Human Resources: Posted 246,491 jobs, also declining by -8%.

Sharp Declines:

Retail: Plummeted by -22%, with 242,470 postings.
Information Technology and Services: Fell by -21%, with 215,136 jobs.
Hospitality: Decreased by -15%, with 76,723 postings.

Growth Sectors:

Food and Beverages: Increased by +3%, with 61,257 postings, likely due to seasonal holiday demand.
Consumer Electronics: Showed a +17% increase, with 12,625 postings, reflecting robust demand.
Motion Pictures and Film: Grew by +18%, posting 1,620 jobs, perhaps highlighting year-end production increases.

The numbers reveal clear winners and losers. Food and Beverages and Consumer Electronics were among the rare industries that experienced growth.

ADP Insights: Private Sector Employment and Pay Trends

The November ADP National Employment Report adds a layer of precision and granularity to private-sector hiring:

146,000 Private Sector Jobs Added: The service-providing sector dominated growth with 140,000 jobs, including:
- Education and Health Services (+50,000).
- Trade, Transportation, and Utilities (+28,000).
- Professional and Business Services (+18,000).
Manufacturing Weakness: The sector lost -26,000 jobs, the weakest performance since spring.
Pay Gains: Annual pay increased by 4.8% for job-stayers and 7.2% for job-changers, highlighting competitive wages despite slower hiring.

Regional Variations:

South Atlantic Region: Added 42,000 jobs, the highest among regions.
Midwest: Saw modest gains of 31,000 jobs, with stronger growth in East North Central states.

ADP also highlights a sharp disparity in establishment size:

Large Employers: Added 120,000 jobs, accounting for the majority of gains.
Small Employers: Lost 17,000 jobs, with the largest losses in businesses with 20–49 employees.

JOLTS Data Insights: Adding a Macro View

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for October 2024 adds critical context to the hiring landscape:

Job Openings: Total openings held steady at 7.7 million but were down by 941,000 year-over-year. Gains were seen in professional and business services (+209,000), accommodation and food services (+162,000), and information (+87,000).
Hires: Remained flat at 5.3 million, but were down 501,000 year-over-year, showing a cooling labor market.
Quits: Increased to 3.3 million, up by +228,000 for the month, indicating strong worker confidence in leaving roles.
Layoffs: Steady at 1.6 million, though retail trade saw an uptick (+60,000).

The rise in quits within sectors like accommodation and food services (+90,000) reflects continued churn, while retail layoffs signal fragility in that sector.

Remote Job Trends: A Slight Decline but Sustained Demand

remote job trends overall

Remote job postings have shown an interesting pattern throughout the second half of 2024. After peaking in October at 771,200 jobs (representing 6.30% of all jobs), remote postings dropped to 658,827 in November, accounting for 6.17% of total job postings.

remote job changes

Despite this decline in absolute numbers and a number of high-profile return to work mandates, the proportion of remote jobs relative to the overall job market has remained relatively stable, hovering around 6% since August. This stability in percentage suggests that while overall hiring volumes have contracted, the demand for remote roles has not fallen disproportionately.

Key Takeaways from November Hiring Data

Global Observations:

Declines in major markets like the U.S. and Germany signal a broad-based hiring slowdown, while Italy’s slight growth stands out.
Canada and the Netherlands reflect moderate resilience.

Regional U.S. Trends:

Widespread declines across states, with North Dakota’s +8.57% growth being the exception.
Idaho and West Virginia saw steep pullbacks, underscoring localized challenges.

Industry Movements:

Food and Beverages (+3%), Consumer Electronics (+17%), and Motion Pictures and Film (+18%) were key bright spots.
Retail’s -22% drop and tech’s -21% decline highlight areas under pressure.

Macro Insights from ADP and JOLTS:

ADP highlights robust growth in education and health services (+50,000) and trade/transportation (+28,000).
Large employers dominated November hiring, adding 120,000 jobs, per ADP data.
Retail layoffs and broader declines in small business hiring indicate economic pressure.

An Evolving Hiring Landscape

The December hiring landscape underscores how dynamic and nuanced the labor market can be. From regional variations to sector-specific trends, businesses need the right tools to stay ahead of the curve.

Want to stay competitive in a rapidly changing labor market? Request a demo of Aura Workforce Analytics and empower your team with real-time hiring insights.

December Hiring Trends: Insights from Aura Workforce Analytics