The Bureau of Labor Statistics' October jobs report highlights a significant deceleration in job growth. The economy added just 12,000 jobs in October, well below expectations. This was driven by a marked decline in private-sector employment, which contracted by 28,000 jobs. October was the worst month of private job growth in nearly four years.
The latest data also underscores how one-off factors impacted national employment, like the ongoing strike activity in key sectors and extreme weather events such as Hurricanes Helene and Milton.
Despite these challenges, the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, showing resilience in some parts of the labor market.
Key Insights from October’s Employment Situation
The October labor market data revealed a steep drop in job creation compared to the average monthly gains in recent months.
The report, which serves as the last jobs report before next week’s election, shows that job growth has slowed considerably, with nonfarm payrolls adding just 12,000 positions. Trump's team quickly seized on the political opportunity, stating:
"This jobs report is a catastrophe and definitively reveals how badly Kamala Harris broke our economy,” Trump spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said in a statement. “President Trump will fix it.”
Private sector losses were notable in areas like manufacturing, where employment dropped by 46,000 jobs due to an ongoing Boeing strike in the transportation equipment and manufacturing sector. This particular strike, alongside recent hurricanes, significantly impacted payroll employment estimates.
Government was a key bright spot. Government employment continued its upward trend in October (+40,000), similar to the average monthly gain of 43,000 over the prior 12 months. Over the month, employment continued to trend up in state government (+18,000).
Other notable private sector declines include Professional and Business Services, which lost 47,000 jobs, and temporary help services, which declined by nearly 49,000.
Wages and Workweek Data in the Job Market
Wage data from the establishment survey reveal that average hourly earnings rose just 4.0% year-over-year, aligning with economists' expectations. However, the average workweek for all employees remained unchanged at 34.3 hours, showing stability despite the current economic turbulence.
This consistent earnings growth and workweek stability could support the Federal Reserve's ongoing easing cycle as policymakers weigh the Labor Department’s payroll employment estimates against inflation risks and the potential for a "soft landing" for the economy.
October Jobs Report: Contextualizing Key Industry Trends with Aura’s Insights
The October jobs report reveals a challenging month for the U.S. labor market, with job declines across several critical sectors. Aura’s workforce intelligence platform provides context to these figures, illustrating how recent month-over-month trends have influenced the broader labor landscape.
Aura Workforce Data from October's Job Posting Data Graph
Manufacturing Sector: Impact of Strikes and Supply Chain Disruptions
The manufacturing sector experienced a decline of 46,000 jobs in October, primarily due to ongoing labor strikes and supply chain disruptions. However, Aura’s recent month-over-month hiring trends data has shown a consistent decrease in job postings (-9% last month) within manufacturing, suggesting a more significant sector effect than the strike.
This trend underscores the challenges in maintaining operational stability within the sector as companies contend with production slowdowns and labor shortages.
Health Care Sector: Steady Growth Amid Workforce Shortages
In contrast to other industries, the healthcare sector added 52,000 jobs in October, particularly in ambulatory care and nursing facilities. Aura’s month-over-month data highlights consistent hiring within healthcare, driven by ongoing skill shortages and high patient demand.
This sector has seen steady job postings (+8% last month) as employers work to address specialized workforce needs. However, the rapid rise in demand has led to persistent hiring challenges, underscoring the need for continued investment in healthcare talent acquisition.
Retail Trade: Seasonal Adjustments Reflect Economic Conditions
The retail sector lost 6,400 jobs in October, likely due to seasonal adjustments and cautious consumer spending. Over recent months, Aura’s data has shown dramatic fluctuations in retail hiring, with a notable decrease in job postings in September (-25%) before coming back up by 5% in October, as consumer confidence has wavered. Retail employers appear to be approaching seasonal hiring conservatively, aligning with broader economic pressures on consumer behavior.
Information Technology: Shifting Focus to Specialized Roles
While the BLS report does not spotlight IT as a major loss sector, Aura’s data shows evolving hiring trends within this industry.
There has been a significant increase in specialized IT roles, particularly in AI, with job postings in AI for marketing and advertising up by 197% and for electronic manufacturing up by 106%. This shift reflects companies’ ongoing prioritization of digital transformation roles over traditional IT positions.
Aura workforce data shows that AI-related jobs in October now account for over 12.5% of total software hiring.
Construction: Seasonal and Economic Realignments
The construction sector’s employment numbers showed minor fluctuations, consistent with seasonal adjustments and economic realignments due to interest rate pressures on new projects. Aura’s recent data indicates a 9% decline in job postings within construction for October, reflecting a cautious approach to hiring as companies balance demand with broader economic conditions.
Understanding October’s Labor Market Shifts
The October jobs report highlights a complex labor environment marked by losses in manufacturing, retail, and temporary roles within professional services. Aura’s month-over-month data provides valuable context, revealing underlying, forward-looking trends in each sector, from healthcare’s continued resilience to manufacturing’s operational challenges. These insights offer businesses, management consultants, and policymakers a clearer view of the factors shaping the current employment landscape.
Unpacking the Broader Economic Impact
This jobs report also illustrates the labor market's vulnerability to external pressures. Strikes, extreme weather, and softer consumer demand have reduced job gains in key sectors. The central bank’s response to these fluctuations will be critical, especially with next week's meeting on interest rates.
Principal Asset Management’s Chief Global Strategist recently commented:
Markets can likely park the October jobs report to the side. Quite clearly, the hurricane has taken a heavy toll on the numbers, clouding the picture of labor market strength, and so should not impact the Fed’s policy rate path. And yet, a deeper ponder of the numbers suggests that, beneath all the noise and disruption, is a fundamentally slowing labor market. The consensus forecast for a 100,000 increase in payrolls was already taking the hurricane effect into account, so the significant downside surprise indicates underlying weakness.
This suggests that today’s job market data argues for a cautious approach by the Federal Reserve.
Meanwhile, the labor department's household survey aligns with these findings, showing stable unemployment even as labor force participation dropped slightly to 62.6%, a tenth of a percentage point lower than last month. Continuing claims for unemployment have also held steady, suggesting that the underlying job market retains some stability despite sector-specific losses.
Long-Term Perspective and Aura’s Strategic Insights
With October's job growth slowed to a near halt, today’s report highlights the critical role of strategic workforce planning and adapting to evolving economic conditions. Aura’s insights equip business leaders with the intelligence to navigate labor market challenges, particularly in high-demand areas like health care, technology, and international markets.
Learn more about measuring and tracking a company's workforce through job posting data, sentiment analysis, and insight into tenure, diversity, and other essential metrics. Request a consultative Aura workforce analytics platform demo and receive a free trial.
